Lead Angle: Are we near the peak?

Peak oil demand is in the news. (Then again, with the proliferation of news outlets, everything under the sun seems to be receiving a fair amount of media “covfefe” these days.) In a May Wall Street Journal article, for instance, authors Lynn Cook and Elena Cherney stated, “The world’s largest oil companies are girding for the biggest shift in energy consumption since the Industrial Revolution: After decades of growth, global demand for oil is poised to peak and fall in the coming years.”

They noted, “Since 1965, global oil consumption has increased from 30 million barrels a day to nearly 95 million.”

The article cites a number of reasons for an eventual peak, including new technologies that improve vehicle fuel efficiency, the possibility that electric vehicles will gain traction and the prospect of governments taxing carbon emissions at high-enough rates to discourage fossil-fuel consumption. It’s highly probable that the demand for oil will eventually plateau and drop.

The bigger question is when.

Some major European oil producers predict a peak as soon as 2025. BP PLC’s base case calls for a peak in the mid-2040s, with the caveat that it could come sooner or later, the WSJ reports.